AUTHORS: Laure-Lou Tremblay, Emma Bergeling, Evelyn Underwood (IEEP)

This study scopes the range of possible additional EU level targets for the EU’s climate mitigation, nature, and water objectives that may be adopted in legislation and affect land use on agricultural land to 2050. It also explores policy options or pathways that may be put in place in future if more ambitious targets are established, or where existing targets are failing to be met. The purpose of this study is to provide an overview of what new EU demands might be placed on agricultural policy and land use in the coming decades. This study is designed to inform potential foresight activities on the future of agricultural policy and land use.

This report explores how future EU-level targets and policy measures on climate mitigation, nature restoration, and water protection may shape agricultural land use in the coming decades. It provides a forward-looking analysis to inform foresight activities and policy planning. The findings are based on a review of current and proposed EU targets, supported by interviews with EU policymakers.

Agricultural land lies at the intersection of multiple environmental challenges. As the EU sets more ambitious climate and biodiversity goals, this study explores policy developments that may significantly affect farmers, land managers, and policymakers working on sustainability and rural development.

The study provides an overview of current trends and gaps related to progress towards climate, nature, water and other environmental targets:

• Climate: while EU greenhouse gas emissions are declining, Member States are not on track to meet 2030 or 2050 targets. Agricultural emissions have been decreasing modestly, and the sink capacity of land (forests and soils) is decreasing, threatening long-term climate goals.
• Nature: Biodiversity linked to farmland continues to decline. The Nature Restoration Regulation, effective since August 2024, sets ambitious targets for 2030, but limited funding and short implementation timelines pose risks to delivery.
• Water, nutrients, and pesticides: only 37% of EU surface waters meet quality targets. Nitrogen and phosphorus losses far exceed safe levels, and progress on nutrient and pesticide reduction has stalled. A legislative proposal for pesticides was debated but did not achieve agreement and was dropped.

Emerging options and policy developments

As the 2024–2029 EU political cycle unfolds, there is a noticeable shift in focus toward economic competitiveness and innovation, with less political appetite for new environmental targets. However, ongoing developments suggest important changes ahead:

• A formal proposal for a 2040 climate target is expected but has so far been delayed. The Water Resilience Strategy expected in June may propose new legislative action to enforce water and nitrates targets or may rely on incentives and dialogue.
• The Carbon Removal Certification Framework (CRCF) is being rolled out to support carbon removals and emission reductions in the land sectors . The potential inclusion of certifying livestock emission reductions is being considered for 2026.
• Market-based mechanisms for agricultural emissions are under exploration, including emissions trading, climate standards, and potential procurement models for carbon farming.
• A proposal to strengthen the ambition of water quality standards, which are currently failing, is still in negotiations, and counter-proposals risk weakening the unachieved existing water targets.
• Nature restoration plans are expected by the summer of 2026, but progress is very uneven, with some Member States still struggling to allocate responsibilities within central government. Biodiversity credits and other private finance initiatives are being spotlighted as the way to plug the funding gap but raise doubts about whether investors will respond in the necessary quantity.

The next EU budget (Multiannual Financial Framework 2028–2034) is unlikely to increase major new funding, including under the CAP. As a result, strengthening the mainstreaming and effectiveness of existing funding flows will be key to meeting climate, nature, and water goals. There is however a risk that current biodiversity funding targets and objectives will be weakened rather than strengthened.

EU environmental policy affecting land use is entering a new phase: implementation over expansion. While major new targets are less likely in the short term, ongoing regulatory developments, funding shifts, and market instruments will shape how agriculture contributes to the EU’s long-term environmental objectives. This study offers critical insights to guide strategic planning and foresight in this evolving context.

Cover page by Weichao Deng on Unsplash