Green Deal Barometer 2024

As the European elections approach, hundreds of sustainability experts believe that the European Green Deal will be maintained by the new European Commission, but its agenda is likely to be weakened.

The fourth edition of the European Green Deal Barometer, IEEP’s annual survey which gathers sustainability experts’ views on the progress of the European Green Deal’s implementation, has released its preliminary findings which will be presented at the Think2030 Conference on 27 March. 

This comprehensive survey of 300+ experts reveals that 67% of respondents see the upcoming European elections having a negative impact on the implementation of the European Green Deal (EGD). According to the respondents, the EGD might lose its central position among EU policy, as its agenda is expected to be weakened or more constrained form. However, respondents do recognise its resilience even in the face of political shifts and in the long-term; 55% of experts are confident that the European institutions will turn the Green Deal’s objectives into approved legislation, including the climate neutrality goal. When implemented, almost all experts living outside the EU also acknowledge positive impacts on a global scale.

Sustainability experts believe the main priority for the European Commission following the 2024 elections should be to ensure a socially just transition. This focus may help enhance the future resilience of the Green Deal. Just over half of the five case studies (France, Czechia, Sweden, Spain and Poland) experts believe ensuring a just transition will increase support for the Green Deal in their countries.

The survey centred around a series of key policy questions assessing different policy areas within the European Green Deal agenda and its implementation.  

Climate mitigation and path to climate neutrality: Experts are divided on whether the target set for 2040 is sufficient for the EU to achieve the objectives of the Paris Agreement, with nearly half (47%) thinking that it is and a slightly lower proportion (43%) thinking it isn’t sufficient.
Protecting and restoring ecosystems and biodiversity: Over two thirds of experts believe the Nature Restoration Law will have a moderate-to-full impact (67%), on the restoration of biodiversity in the European Union.
Ensuring a socially just transition: Almost half (45%) of those with expertise on ensuring a just transition believe progress made towards mainstreaming the principle since 2019 has been poor.
Fair and sustainable food and farming system: Three quarters (75%) of those with expertise on issues surrounding a sustainable food and farming system believe that progress made since 2019 has been poor. Less than one in 10 (7%) believe progress has been good. Increasing financial support for farmers to transition towards sustainable agricultural practices (59%) is seen by the experts as one of the most necessary measures to achieve a more environmental and climate-friendly EU agriculture policy.
Supplying decarbonised, affordable and secure energy: Over a third (34%) believe that progress has been good, making this the one policy area where those with expertise are more positive than negative on the progress being made. However, only 1 in 10 (10%) experts think the current version of the Electricity Market Reform protects citizens from future energy crises or price spikes to a great extent/completely.   
The external impact of the European Green Deal: 69% of experts think the overall external impact of the European Green Deal is positive. 63% of experts believe the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism will help reduce the carbon emissions of products entering in the EU to a moderate/great extent.

The executive summary with an overview of the results is available here.

The full report of the European Green Deal Barometer will be released in May and will include a comprehensive list of recommendations for a more resilient and ambitious European Green Deal to ensure its continuation beyond 2024. The recommendations will include the discussions of the Think2030 biannual Conference.

The European Green Deal Barometer is produced and published by the Institute for European Environmental Policy based on a survey conducted with the support of survey contractor Savanta.

IEEP would like to thank the European Green Deal Barometer 2024 knowledge partners: the Think Sustainable Europe network members, AMO (CZ), Energia Klub (HU), IDDRI (FR), and The Green Tank (GR), the European Environmental Agency, the European Environmental Bureau, the Green Economy Coalition, Reform, UNEP One Planet, our private sector partners Tetra Pak and IBMA and the Heinrich Boll Foundation that supported the Barometer work.

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