Author: David Baldock

Ahead of the expected 16 July release, this briefing examines how the EU’s next long-term budget (2028–2034) could redefine the CAP, reshape environmental funding, and influence the path to a sustainable agri-food system. 

The EU’s post-2027 Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) will set the direction for public spending through 2034, with far-reaching implications for agriculture, land use, and environmental ambition.  

This briefing offers a forward-looking analysis of the emerging MFF structure, drawing on available information and recent leaks, and assesses what is at stake for the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and the transition to a sustainable food and farming system. 

The briefing identifies the following threats and opportunities:

• Environmental funding is at risk: Cuts to the CAP budget could disproportionately affect agri-environmental schemes, especially if direct payments are prioritised. 

• Ring-fencing may be weakened: The current protection for environmentally targeted spending within the CAP could be reduced or removed, making such measures more vulnerable at Member State level. 

• Conditionality may be further relaxed: A continued weakening of environmental standards could undermine the CAP’s “green architecture,” shifting the balance toward production-focused spending. 

• Subsidiarity brings both risks and opportunities: More national and regional control could weaken EU-wide environmental coherence—but also enable innovative, locally tailored sustainability solutions if governance is well-designed. 

• Flexibility could support transition: Greater integration of funding instruments might allow for new support schemes focused on farm-level decarbonisation and sustainable markets (e.g. plant-based proteins, rewetting peatlands). 

• Governance reform is crucial: Any shift in control must be balanced with stronger involvement of environmental authorities and accountability mechanisms to maintain ambition. 

The next EU budget is more than a financial instrument; it is a statement of political priorities. How the MFF and CAP are shaped in the coming months will determine whether Europe’s agriculture policy supports a just, resilient, and climate-aligned future or slides back toward business as usual. 

Read the full briefing

Photo by Henry Be on Unsplash