AUTHORS: Martijn Pakker, Antoine Oger

IEEP participated at COP28, conveying the sense of urgency of taking collective action to reduce global temperature rise and safeguard the planet’s ecosystems. In this reflection, we look at the key results of COP28 and consider what the EU can do to meet the ambitious objectives set by the conference.

The recently concluded 28th Conference of the Parties (COP28) in Dubai brought together nations, policymakers, scientists, businesses and stakeholders from around the world to take stock of the past successes and challenges and agree on the way forward to address the pressing challenges posed by climate change. IEEP participated in the discussions of the largest conference to date, which was held against the backdrop of increasingly alarming scientific reports, emphasising the need for immediate and decisive action to limit global temperature rise and protect the planet’s ecosystems. In this reflection, we look at the key results of COP28 and consider what the EU can do to meet the ambitious objectives set by the conference.

Key outcomes of COP28

COP28 marked a major milestone as it concluded the first Global Stocktake under the Paris Agreement (GST), recognising that the world is not currently on track to reduce emissions by the necessary level to limit temperature increase to 1.5 Celsius. COP28 thus eventually adopted a decision calling for accelerated short-term action and an orderly transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems. Alignment around emissions reductions consistent with the goal of 1.5° and reaching net zero by 2050 is now explicit in the COP text while parties agreed to take action to reduce emissions by 43% by 2030 and 60% by 2035 in relation to the 2019 level and set the world on a pathway to reaching net zero emissions by 2050, in line with the best available science.

These points represent a significant achievement as COP28 is now the first-ever to address fossil fuels in its final decision and puts the alignment with science on the forefront of the fight against climate change. Yet, words matter, and they also represent missed opportunities. Debates raged before and during the conference on whether or not fossil fuels should be phased out, and in which section(s) of the economy. The result compromise eventually faces mixed reaction. The idea of transitioning away rather than phasing-out seems to be considered acceptable by most stakeholders, but a lot of negative feedback pointed out the focus on energy systems, questioning whether enough efforts could now be made on other use of fossil fuels’ use such as in industrial or transport sectors. These points will need to be addressed moving forward.

Parties also committed to triple global renewable energy capacity and double the rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030, while phasing out as soon as possible inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that do not address energy poverty or the just transition. Here again, words matter, as inefficient is not a defined legal term in the UNFCCC context and thus leaves countries with significant interpretation flexibilities.

Recognising the financial obstacles associated with climate action, the Conference operationalised the Loss and Damage Fund, which was established by COP27 in 2022. Yet the first pledges from wealthy nations currently total over $650 million which fall vastly short of what is required (report vary between $300 and $600bn per year). Progress was made though on the new collective quantified goal (NCQG), which builds on the $100 billion pledged by developed nations for climate mitigation and adaptation finances in developing nations (which seems to have been only met this year). COP28 saw an agreement to draft a post-2025 finance target ahead of COP29, thus a step forward but many details to be hammered out next year. COP28 further witnessed the introduction of 11 pledges and declarations as countries explored various avenues to mobilise funds for adaptation and mitigation efforts from both the public and private sectors.

Quite importantly, parties agreed on a pathway to get back on track of the Paris agreement and committed to enhance their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) towards the goals of the Paris Agreement. Countries should submit their revised NDCs for 2035 by COP30 (in two years’ time), and these should be aligned with the best available science and the outcomes of the Global Stocktake. COP30 thus is already marked as a key milestone moving forward.

Europe’s role in the negotiations

The European Union  has been at the heart of the world’s climate action movement for many years, and COP28 was a chance to step up its game and lead the way in meeting the objectives set at the conference. With the EU elections just around the corner, the COP28 decision sets a pathway for European parties to ensure the European Green Deal (EGD) remains on track, turning pledges into action during the next mandate. The outcomes of COP28 also provide a roadmap for the EU to speed up its economic transformation by investing more in green technologies and innovation, particularly in challenging sectors such as carbon-heavy industries or agriculture.

As climate change impacts become more pronounced, adaptation and resilience strategies are paramount. Europe, with its diverse range of climates and ecosystems, can share its experiences in adapting to changing conditions. This includes developing resilient infrastructure, implementing water management strategies, and addressing the socio-economic impacts of climate change.

COP28 discussions also included some important wordings on the importance of delivering a just transition, emphasizing the disproportionate impacts of climate change on vulnerable communities. Europe can and must advocate for and contribute to initiatives that address the needs of the most affected regions and populations, ensuring that the global response to climate change is inclusive and just.

Conclusion

At the eleventh hour, what is now called the UAE Consensus made progress on the path toward a sustainable future with concerted efforts from all nations. The EU must play a pivotal role in achieving the targets set out in the consensus, leading by driving and adopting policies for the phasing out of fossil fuels, investing in climate mitigation and adaptation within and outside the Union for a just transition in all segments of societies. By reinforcing commitments, sharing expertise, and fostering international collaboration based on evidence and informed decision-making, the EU can contribute significantly to the global effort to mitigate climate change and build a resilient and sustainable future for generations to come.